We are just one guy at a desk in the Old Hat Factory. The market is billions of people making trillions of decisions. Who is right? Our point, which we laboured to make yesterday, is that markets generally know more than we do. As just one guy, the only thing more limited than our experience is our knowledge. We know our limits, most of the time.
But mob behaviour, driven by emotion, is not the same thing as market pricing. This is why we are suspicious of climate change as a media beat up. Sure, we understand a lot of carbon dioxide has been released into the earth’s atmosphere since the dawn of the industrial revolution. We just don’t think anyone really knows what this means yet, ecologically or economically.
Also, we know Al Gore is a legendary, if likeable, blow-hard. He is a politician. It’s what he does. When anything is so widely believed, it must surely be wrong. It is so widely accepted that it must be a fraud, or at least more complicated than how it’s now being presented. As a trader, it’s nearly irresistible to take the other side of the climate change trade right now.
Markets and Money