What Does ASX Ltd’s Share Price Tell You about 2015?


What’s Happening to ASX Ltd’s Share Price?

This is following up on an update I did a couple of weeks ago. In the interim, ASX Ltd has gone on a tear, releasing their first half yearly results. The news was positive — did that catch you by surprise? Profits from ordinary activities increased 4.7% for 1H15.

What is it Telling You about the Wider Economy for 2015?

Let’s bring up a chart. Here’s the monthly chart of ASX Ltd:


Source: STEX

This is a stock you could follow, a bellwether of sorts for the share market and the economy at large. The chart is indicating a big start for 2015 with increased business confidence, more IPOs, (most notably from the tech sector) and growing trading activity. You see, you don’t need to read other people’s opinions of what they think markets will do (not even mine), future market movements are already priced into the charts.
You’re seeing this now?

What Can We Expect Now for ASX Ltd?

We see if it has any reaction to its announcement. Early days on that, however, if it continues on from here, it is telling you something further.
More broadly, for the economy at large, this is not forecasting collapse. In fact, it is confirming where we are in the cycle. If by chance, you do not know where we are placed in the 18 year real estate cycle, then you are fumbling around in the dark and you need to go here to find out more. Otherwise, you remain at a substantial investment disadvantage.

Terence Duffy,
Research Analyst, Cycles, Trends and Forecasts

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