Pick any number between 6,999 and 7,001 and you’ll have a good idea of what our forecast is for the “Melt Up” high on the ASX/200 this year. Details below. But step back for a moment from the forecasting and take a long look at this market. You might want to even jot down the date and time so you can tell your grandkids exactly where you were when Australia’s stock market was as good as it gets.
Of course, if the indexes go higher, it will be even better than as good as it gets. Austock senior client advisor Michael Heffernan said the share market had climbed “about 10 per cent this year—equivalent to an annual rate of almost 35 per cent.” Now that would be a good year. But is it really possible?
It depends on what you think drives markets higher. In simple cause and effect terms, money drives markets higher. If more money comes in, markets will go higher, or so it would seem. This leads us to today’s dilemma.
You’d suspect that at some point a rising Aussie dollar would begin to be a negative thing for Aussie mineral exporters. But what is that point? Is it at 85 cents to the U.S. dollar? Is it 90? Or have we already passed it?
Maybe it doesn’t matter that much for current share prices anyway. After all, BHP negotiates its iron ore prices with China on an annual basis. For better or for worse, the variations in the strength (or weakness) of the currency, are beyond its control.
Markets and Money