Yesterday’s episode of the Markets and Money left off with the question of whether 5,000 was in sight on the ASX 200. The answer today is that it is just over the horizon. The index closed up 2.3% to 4,695. The more investors thought about the recovery/China/demise of the dollar story, the more they liked buying stocks (especially gold stocks).
But let’s not forget about oil. It too is priced in dollars. In fact, the big gold move started because Robert Fisk claimed the Gulf States and China et al. are tired of paying for oil in an unstable currency. You could say that gold moved closer to being money again because of how important oil already is to the real economy.
We’ll get back to oil in a moment. But there was a story in today’s Age that gave us the willies. “The Aussie dollar is poised to storm past parity with the US dollar, propelled by local interest rate rises and Australia’s close ties to the booming Chinese economy, according to currency analysts,” reports Chris Zappone.
It doesn’t sound too creepy. But there IS a creeping hint of euphoria to the Aussie story at the moment. The dollar…the economy…the fact that summer is just over the horizon…you can feel the animal spirits getting friskier. It was like this in the summer of 2008 as well, right before the bottom fell out.
But enough of the weird sense of déjà vu. How does the big picture affect your investments? That is always the tricky part. It’s one reason why we are stuffing our new offices with all kinds of traders and analysts and writers whose ideas would probably get them thrown out of a respectable job. These are just the people we want thinking about the investment future.
for Markets and Money