Can the ‘Thin Air’ Economy Keep Going?

Remember, it’s just a matter of time until US stocks begin to fall. How much time? Darned if we know!

We spent Friday cosechando (harvesting). We were on our knees going through the vineyard at the family ranch, harvesting grapes. The going rate for such work is 5.70 Argentine pesos (or about $0.70) per gamela — the plastic bin we dragged along after us.

This was the first time we had ever worked as a grape picker. Experienced, hardy pickers can fill 40 gamelas a day, giving them about 230 pesos (or about $28) for the day’s work. Your editor worked at fast as he could. Still, he was only able to pick at the rate of nine gamelas a day. That gave him an income for the day of 51.30 pesos… or about $6.40.

The sun beat down. The grapes hid behind leaves and clung to vines, making it hard to cut them off. Our knees found every rock in the field. Still, we were proud to be doing honest work…and happy to earn some extra money.

Now, let us turn back to last week’s subject.

You’ll recall that the credit bubble must continue to expand. Or else all Hell will break loose. Civilization probably won’t be able to survive a real credit deflation, economist and author Richard Duncan believes. With visions of chaos, depression and war in his head, he advocates policies that give the bubble more air.

We live in a credit-driven economy. The money supply relies on banks creating new credit. Credit must expand…or the economy shrinks. It can’t stand still because the current level of jobs and incomes depends on additional debt.

Last year, for example, through its QE program the Federal Reserve created $1 trillion of new bank deposits (offsetting them with $1 trillion in new bank reserves). And the economy grew just 1.9% — or by only about $320 billion. Think what would have happened without this boost!

But for credit to really expand without the help of QE, banks must find willing and able borrowers. And who will those willing and able borrowers be?

Not consumers. They don’t have the disposable incomes to support much additional borrowing.

And not corporations. Their earnings are beginning to turn down, too. The days of borrowing money in order to goose up their own stocks (and, not coincidentally, get management bigger bonuses) must be nearing an end.

Who does that leave? Government. Government is the only large entity with the ability (in theory at least) to borrow an infinite amount of money. Because it doesn’t have to worry about paying it back. It’s the only institution with the legal right to counterfeit its own money…and use this cash to pay its own debts.

What a sweet deal!

Duncan reckons that the US can, will and should follow the example given it by the Japanese.

Although the US has debt equal to about 100% of GDP, Japan’s government debt is about 240% of GDP. By that measure the US could borrow another $17 trillion — enough to keep the credit bubble and the economy expanding for many years.

You see, dear reader, we live in a world of wonders. One of them is that we have an economy that now lives, and apparently thrives, on air.

Each year, households, government and corporations spend their revenues…and then some. This extra spending would normally come from savings. Instead, it comes out of thin air — conjured up by the Fed and the banking system.

Now, imagine that the air were cut off. You can see what a disaster it would be. Everyone would be gasping for cash…for credit…for a last breath.

What’s the solution? Keep the credit flowing!

That is what the Japanese did following their stock and property market crash in 1990. And it’s what they’ve been doing ever since. They were faced with the same challenge — the household sector could no longer be persuaded to borrow…and the corporate sector could no longer afford to.

So, the government stepped in as the borrower and big spender of last resort…allowing the Japanese government to run up record amounts of debt relative to the size of its economy.

But wait… With the government borrowing and spending so freely, didn’t prices go up? Didn’t inflation discourage people from lending to the government?

Nope. Prices were stable or actually fell. For two reasons. Because everyone else was paying down debt and reluctant to spend at all. And because wage competition from nearby China was substantially lowering the cost of consumer items.

So, with no threat from consumer price inflation, the government just kept borrowing and spending. This has held the Japanese economy together for 24 years. Many economists look at the Japanese example as a success story.

But the final chapter on that story still hasn’t been written. We will take a guess at how it turns out: badly.


Bill Bonner
for Markets and Money

Join Markets and Money on Google+

Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success and garnered camaraderie in numerous communities and industries. A man of many talents, his entrepreneurial savvy, unique writings, philanthropic undertakings, and preservationist activities have all been recognized and awarded by some of America’s most respected authorities. Along with Addison Wiggin, his friend and colleague, Bill has written two New York Times best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. Both works have been critically acclaimed internationally. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance. Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind Markets and Money.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Markets & Money