The rumour in the Australian that China Inc. is prepared to spend up to $22 billion to secure a 10% equity stake in BHP Billiton (ASX: BHP) remains just that, a rumour. If a Chinese-backed buyer was trying to buy BHP for a song, it’s not working out very well. That makes you wonder again what the real purpose of such a move would be. Is it to own a piece of BHP so that when it does, eventually, acquire Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO), the Chinese shareholders have a call on Rio’s assets?
Or, is it a feint? Is it tactical misdirection designed to depress Rio’s share price so another less-than-friendly raid on Rio can be conducted at a slight discount? Indulge us. With enough leverage, we reckon a hedge fund could turn this into a trading strategy.
Theoretically, Rio’s shares are now a derivative of BHP’s. Investors know BHP has bid 3.4 of it shares for every one share of Rio. After BHP’s strong performance yesterday, it would have taken just 3.29 BHP shares at $41.91 to buy one of Rio’s shares at $137.88.
If the market takes BHP’s offer as kind of “net asset value” of Rio, then any time the ratio drops below 3.41, Rio should be bought or BHP sold. On the other hand, if the ratio exceeds 3.41, either Rio is overvalued or BHP undervalued. Trade accordingly. In other words, you can use the ratio of BHP’s offer to determine a premium or discount in both shares.
This, of course, is complete nonsense. You cannot determine the value of either company relative to the other without including a serious discussion of the value of what they produce: coal, oil, metals ores and so much more. And in any event, there is a pointed difference of opinion between BHP and Rio management over just what Rio’s current production and future projects are worth today.
If you’re China (or charged with representing China’s national interests), perhaps the future cash flows from the assets don’t matter as much as the actual possession of the assets. Perhaps it’s the ownership of those assets that’s more important, guaranteeing your domestic metals producing industries have raw materials.
But who knows? All we really know is that unlike the credit markets filled with garbage bonds and CDOs and fictitious assets, Australian companies have real assets on the balance sheets…and the market value of those assets (in addition the geopolitical value) is grinding relentlessly up. That’s a good thing for us individual investors.
Markets and Money