Check out the chart of America’s large cap benchmark stock index on the S&P 500. It made a five-year high on Friday in the US. (By the way, American markets are closed tonight for Martin Luther King day).
The index is not quite back to pre-GFC levels. But the question has to be asked: is it over? Is the worst behind us? Has the Fed’s war on deflation been won?
It’s not really a war on deflation. It’s a war on falling stock prices and weak economic growth driven by a vast overhang of unproductive public and private debt. And in any event, it hasn’t been won. But something is clearly happening. So what is it?
Well, by systematically lowering bond yields, the Fed has lowered the return on all fixed income investments. Those low yields make the paltry earnings growth in the stock market look attractive by comparison, or at least less ugly. The result is a reflationary rally in the S&P 500, taking it to a five-year high.
What comes next, though, is the counter attack by everyone else who is NOT the Fed. The S&P rally benefits US investors and dollar-based speculators. It all requires a weak US dollar to work. But that same weak US dollar creates problems for other countries whose currencies appreciate. That appreciation makes export growth and GDP growth harder to achieve.
The whole world is fighting over the same customers. And everyone wants to use a cheap currency to win. But not everyone can win. As in Highlander, there can be only one winner. But really, this is not a battle between the US and China, or Japan and Europe, or Australia and Brazil. Looking at the world as a contest between Nation states is how we’re encouraged to think about it. But that’s not what’s really going on. Tomorrow, we’ll peel back the curtain and tell you who the real protagonists and antagonists are in the global currency fight.
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Why our currency could be headed below 50 US cents…what the dollar crash could mean for you…and what you could do today to protect yourself from the fallout.
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- Why the Aussie dollar could tumble in 2017: Greg reveals his detailed analysis on what he believes to be the coming Aussie dollar crash, and why you could see our dollar plunge as low as 50 US cents.
- Our $1 TRILLION ‘debt-bomb’: Aussies have borrowed over $1 trillion to maintain the lifestyle we’ve become accustomed to over the last two decades. Greg explains how a plunging dollar could detonate this ticking ‘debt-bomb’. And why your wealth, lifestyle and retirement dreams are in the firing line.
- REVEALED: The Middle Kingdom growth ‘mirage’: If you think all is well in China — think again. Greg reveals why he believes China’s synthetic economic growth could have a devastating effect on the Aussie dollar and, by default, your wealth.
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