Don’t Try to Pick the Bottom for Oil – Yet

US crude oil prices fell over 2% last night, dragging the overall market into the red. The Dow finished down 0.3%. The Aussie market will likely have a down day too.

The oil price just can’t gain any traction. The days of US$100 a barrel seem a long way off. While a lower oil price is good news for those consumers sticking a petrol nozzle in their car once a week, there is a flipside to consider.

That is, if the oil price stays around these levels for a prolonged period, say another 12 months or so, there is going to be a lot of pain for investors to absorb.

In the other essay today, Strategic Intelligence editor, Jim Rickards explains how the ticking debt bomb in the oil sector is actually larger than the sub-prime debt problem of 2007. A huge amount of debt issuance took place in the past few years based on the presumption of permanently high oil prices.

Now many operators are losing money, barely able to service their debts, let alone ever repay them. As Jim explains below, massive write-downs are on their way…and it won’t be pretty.

Australia has its own version of this energy debt debacle. Companies like Santos [ASX:STO] and Origin [ASX:ORG] took on huge amounts of debt in recent years to build massive LNG projects. The boards of these companies become lightheaded during the coal seam gas boom and approved projects that relied on high oil prices for their viability.

Those assumptions are now in tatters. The oil bust claimed another Aussie corporate scalp yesterday, when Origin Finance Chief Karen Moses resigned. Instead of going the same way, Chairman Gordon Cairns offered shareholders pathetic platitudes instead. From today’s Financial Review:

Mr Cairns admitted management had not foreseen the extent of the dive in crude oil prices, and had been mistaken in its original belief the company would be largely insulated from price weakness.

But he assured shareholders the company had learnt valuable lessons and had now reformed its investment planning to include a "worst possible case" scenario.

"It is appropriate here and now, to acknowledge your frustration, absorb the learning and move forward," Mr Cairns said.

I’m glad to see he’s learnt some lessons and is now ready to move forward. But at the cost of a 60% share price decline for a major (now former) blue chip company, those were very expensive lessons.

In fact, it’s a monumental stuff up. You only truly learn the value of good management and strategic direction in a crisis, and Origin’s management and board have failed shareholders spectacularly. King and Cairns both need to man up and walk.

Origin is yet to write off any of the debt associated with its new LNG project, so there is more pain to come.

This is the whole point of Jim’s essay today. He reckons there is about $1 trillion worth of energy related debt that will be written off in the years to come, and it will have profound implications for the financial system.

It’s a scary thought, but one you need to understand so you can avoid the fallout. In short, don’t try and pick the bottom for oil yet.


Greg Canavan is a Contributing Editor at Markets & Money and Head of Research at Port Phillip Publishing. He advocates a counter-intuitive investment philosophy based on the old adage that ‘ignorance is bliss’. Greg says that investing in the ‘Information Age’ means you now have all the information you need. But is it really useful? Much of it is noise, and serves to confuse rather than inform investors. And, through the process of confirmation bias, you tend to sift the information that you agree with. As a result, you reinforce your biases. This gives you the impression that you know what is going on. But really, you don’t know. No one does. The world is far too complex to understand. When you accept this, your newfound ignorance becomes a formidable investment weapon. That’s because you’re not a slave to your emotions and biases. Greg puts this philosophy into action as the Editor of Crisis & Opportunity. He sees opportunities in crises. To find the opportunities, he uses a process called the ‘Fusion Method’, which combines charting analysis with more conventional valuation analysis. Charting is important because it contains no opinions or emotions. Combine that with traditional stock analysis, and you have a robust stock selection strategy. With Greg’s help, you can implement a long-term wealth-building strategy into your financial planning, be better prepared for the financial challenges ahead, and stop making the same mistakes that most private investors do every time they buy a stock. To find out more about Greg’s investing style and his financial worldview, take out a free subscription to Markets & Money here. And to discover more about Greg’s ‘ignorance is bliss’ investment strategy and the Fusion Method of investing, take out a 30-day trial to his value investing service Crisis & Opportunity here. Official websites and financial e-letters Greg writes for:

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