Why are so many gold analysts blind to the real moves in gold?
Yesterday gold leapt $11 higher in US trade, touching $655 per ounce for the first time in a week and matching its recent 7-month highs.
The move came five hours before the US Fed said it was keeping Dollar interest rates on hold at 5.25%. So at first glance New York traders look pretty smart.
They anticipated no change at the Fed, along with the Dollar weakness it should create.
But gold didn’t only jump versus the Dollar. It also leapt higher against all other major currencies. You wouldn’t know it, however, from the comments made by investment bank analysts and gold-watching pundits today.
“The [US] Dollar is perceived as weakening against the Yen for the time being,” says Peter Tse, chief precious metals trader at ScotiaMocatta. “That is bullish for gold.”
Versus the Japanese Yen, however, gold traded overnight in Tokyo rose to its highest levels since the very top of last May’s spike, breaking above ¥79,200 per ounce.
If gold’s bull run on Wednesday was solely down to a weakening Dollar, the Yen price would have fallen, however, instead of rising.
“This [Fed] news was negative to the Dollar and gold positive,” adds Julian Phillips, analyst at GoldForecaster.com. Yet the Dollar barely moved on the forex markets, while gold rose against all currencies.
Against the Pound gold shot to £334 per ounce – its highest level since Sept. – and held above £332 all through Thursday’s Asian session. Versus the Euro gold leapt above €500 per ounce. It opened today’s European trade at €502.
“The Dollar fell sharply against the Euro and Yen,” according to MarketWatch. But slipping just 0.5% versus the Euro from $1.2965 to $1.3032 – and losing less than one Yen to ¥120.67 – is NOT sharp drop.
The Pound moved further against the Euro on Wednesday. The Euro moved further against the Australian Dollar.
But none of these moves compare with gold’s 1.7% jump. Indeed, versus the “commodity currencies” of Australia and Canada, gold also shot higher to trade at a 5-month and 8-month high respectively.
So don’t be misled into thinking gold’s current strength is solely about “Dollar weakness”. The yellow metal’s got much more pushing it higher than simply the decline of America’s financial and economic dominance – crucial though it is!
A full analysis of what’s happening in the global gold market right now can be found here: Gold in 2007
for the Markets and Money Australia
City correspondent for Markets and Money in London, Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault.com – giving you direct access to investment gold, vaulted in Zurich, on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.