The Investment Importance of WHEN

‘Australian House Prices Suffer Biggest Monthly Fall in Five Years,’ reported the Guardian Australia on Monday, June 2nd 2014.

It appears the housing boom might be ending.

Or is it?

Take a look at the following headlines…

PM Plays Down Bubble Talk
‘Australians trying to break into the housing market are the victims of the nation’s own prosperity in the shape of booming property prices, the Prime Minister said yesterday.’

Homes Bubble May Go Toxic
‘House prices have registered their biggest jump in nearly two years, intensifying fears that the property bubble will damage the economy.’

Home stretch
‘Housing has rarely been less affordable and it’s young home buyers who are missing out. The Federal Government is getting involved, but can it do any good?’

Home crisis forces
‘The Treasurer, Peter Costello, will announce a broad inquiry into the causes of rocketing housing prices today in an effort to address the deepening home affordability crisis.’

IMF Has Bubble Vision Over Housing
‘Australia’s housing bubble could soon burst with damaging consequences for the economy, one of the world’s heavyweight economic organisations has warned.’

Bubble trouble for economics boss as that word slips from room
“Housing bubble” are words the nation’s economic guardians are loath to utter, and when Australia’s senior economic bureaucrat, Ken Henry, used them in a speech yesterday he did not want it to leave the room.’

Housing Boom to Bust: IMF Alert
‘The International Monetary Fund has become the latest economic heavyweight to warn about the dangers of rising house prices in Australia and the impact of a bust.’

This is what The Sydney Morning Herald was saying about the Australian property market in 2003. Not through the whole year. But only in the month of September!

The overwhelming consensus is 2003 was that an epic housing crash was on the cards. The Australian housing market was a bubble ‘Fit to Burst’ with property prices ‘unsustainably high’.

At the time this may have seemed like a sensible prediction, too…

Between July 2000 and July 2003 the median national house price rose from $160,000 to $230,000. A 53% rise in just three years.

Pretty much every ‘expert’ believed a correction was coming.

Phillip J. Anderson knew otherwise — that the Cycle had four more years to run.

He went on record in January 2003 to say:

‘In 2005 you can expect less money flow into manufacturing, more into the speculative rent seeking activities.

‘It is then that property will go right over the top.’

And so it did.

By July 2005 the median price had risen to $296,000. Then prices went ‘right over the top’, just as Anderson had predicted two years earlier. By July 2010 the median price was at $425,500.

If you’d listened to people saying the boom was over in 2003, you’d have missed out on the biggest gains of the property cycle.

If you’d listened to Anderson — and invested accordingly — you’d have stayed in a property market that went on to rise a further 85% between 2003-2010.

The core principle behind The Anderson Forecasts is this: The most valuable financial information in the investing world isn’t knowing what to buy and sell.

It’s knowing when to buy and sell
Famous trader W.D. Gann knew this. He wrote:

‘There is a definite relation between TIME and PRICE. Now, by a study of the TIME PERIODS and TIME CYCLES you will learn why tops and bottoms are found at certain times and why Resistance Levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them.

‘The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles.’

It’s hard to argue with this logic.

Get your timing right, and it doesn’t really matter what specific stock, property, commodity or currency you buy. Get your timing right, and you’ll make money regardless. The cycle does the work for you.

Phillip J. Anderson believes there is a Grand Cycle that governs the markets. He explains:

‘Once you understand the Cycle, you can forecast it. History, I assure you, does repeat. And if you can forecast correctly, you can make money.

‘Understanding this Cycle is the absolute key to becoming and staying wealthy.

‘Once you see it, you’ll have an incredible advantage few other investors ever see or understand. You’ll also rarely need to worry about the barrage of conflicting data we all receive every day. And you’ll be able to make consistently better investing decisions.’

This is the premise of an intriguing new investment service Port Phillip Publishing is launching in conjunction with Anderson.

Phil has spent his whole life modifying and extending the work of cycle theorists before him…adapting it to the Australian market…and showing how it can be used to predict stocks, house prices, commodities…even whole economies.

Now, for the first time, he’s applying his forecasting theories REAL-TIME to the Australian market. If that sounds like useful knowledge, stay tuned for a big announcement over the next few days…

Mike Graham
for Markets and Money

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Markets and Money offers an independent and critical perspective on the Australian and global investment markets. Slightly offbeat and far from institutional, Markets and Money delivers you straight-forward, humorous, and useful investment insights from a world wide network of analysts, contrarians, and successful investors.

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