The Trump Effect

Take sides with a foreign country over your own security forces — sure.

Blame your own countrymen for spying — why not.

Cosy up to a ruthless dictator — of course.

Resulting opinion polls?

Nothing to see here…

I’m talking about National Lampoon…err…I mean President Donald Trump’s recent European vacation. By all accounts a disaster, a travesty, a treason…

And a complete non-event poll wise.

The ‘Teflon Don’ really is untouchable it seems.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 71% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of Russia even after Helsinki.

Pretty much the same number as before.

If this surprises you, then you’ve not yet grasped why Donald Trump’s supporters voted him in. They want — indeed they expect him — to shake up the joint.

How he does that?

Well, that’s up to him…

But the rule of thumb is the more people he annoys the happier they are!

And if you thought that meant stopping at the soon-to-be walled US borders, think again.

Nothing matters to the MAGA crowd except pursuing the ‘America First’ doctrine. Whatever that means.

Unfortunately, I think like most extreme ideologies, this entertainment-led spectacle will fail more miserably and quickly than most.

There’s no volumes of Karl Marx’s Das Kapital sitting behind it all, driving centuries of intellectual momentum.

Just President Trump’s big ego. And a bunch of baseball caps.

But it has this in common with Marxism — the end results won’t be pretty.

In fact, I think you’re witnessing the end of America as we know it. All empires eventually fail. And this could be the beginning of the end of the American century.

You might disagree with me. Plenty of people here at Port Phillip Publishing do.

You might even be applauding Trump’s tactics?

After all, the stock market is up, employment figures are good, and a certain class of American is fighting — and in their heads winning — a currently costless war against perceived enemies.

But the laws of cause and effect are starting to kick in.

Trumpism doesn’t exist in a vacuum. People will react.

Throughout the world, old alliances are under review. Unimagined strategic options are now back on the table. The Trump fall out is just beginning.

And I believe it will have huge ramifications on the markets of the world…

The new Trump trades

I forgot to introduce myself at the start. I’m Ryan Dinse, and I’m covering for Selva this week as she is busy working on a couple of exciting projects.

If you don’t know me, I run a few services here at Port Phillip Publishing.

From cryptocurrencies to small-cap trading to finding exponential stocks — they all have the same thread running through them.

They’re all about spotting crucial moments in time when certain disparate forces come together in unforeseen ways to create huge new investing opportunities.

I call these moments ‘collision points’. 

Though it doesn’t always work out as I’d hope. Sometimes I get in too early. And sometimes I get it completely wrong. Such is investing life.

But each service is based around the fact that when I get it right, the outcome is so huge, you can make significant gains. More than enough to cover the bad calls. It’s definitely not a strategy for the feint hearted I’ll give you.

It appeals to me though. It’s the way I’ve always invested, traded and made money. It’s how my trading heroes like Nassim Taleb and George Soros trade. So, it might appeal to you too.

Anyway, I thought this week I’d look for the big plays I think are developing because of the actions of a certain President Donald J Trump.

After all, we’ve never seen such a disruptive presidency.

The Trump effect is throwing the whole world order into chaos.

Like I said at the start, that’s why he’s there. It’s not a mistake. And I’m not just a mindless Trump critic. I agree there’s merits in shaking things up from time to time.

But I’m not sure it a good thing long term to be honest. Because I think what made America great included such things as NATO, human rights and free trade.

Draining the swamp is good. Destroying the joint while you’re at it, maybe not so much.

But agree or disagree, there’s no point worrying too much about what you can’t change.

The real thing on my mind, is how is the Trump effect going to play out in the markets? How can you make money from all this flux and drama?

I’m sure Donald Trump would applaud my thinking…

So, over this week I’m going to go over some investing ideas I think are worth paying attention to. They’re directly or indirectly related to what I call the ‘Trump effect.’

Now I warn you up front, you might not agree with me on any of this. And I’m certainly not making any guarantees or firm recommendations. Read them at your own risk!

But it’s definitely things you should be looking into yourself and seeing how your own portfolio stacks up if I’m right.

The starting point

From tomorrow I’ll start focussing on a sector I think is a prime investment opportunity. An opportunity Trump’s visit to Europe just turbo charged.

Look out for that…

But to finish off today, let’s take stock of where we’re at right now.

As you might know, you’re living in a world of two extremes.

US stock markets are close to record highs. Both the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ indices have been on a tear since Trump was elected.

Part of this was due to expectations of a big corporate tax cut — which they got. And the second part of it was based on a potential infrastructure boom, which hasn’t really taken off yet but remains Trump’s ace up the sleeve.

He is a construction guy after all.

Now this of course sounds great for investors. More money to be invested, more profits to be made. But the question remains, how do you pay for any of it?

And there’s the rub…

Stock markets aren’t the only thing peaking. US National debt is at its highest level since World War Two.

The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found:

‘At 78 percent of gross domestic product, federal debt held by the public is now at its highest level since shortly after World War II.

If current laws generally remained unchanged, the Congressional Budget Office projects, growing budget deficits would boost that debt sharply over the next 30 years; it would approach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the next decade and 152 percent by 2048. That amount would be the highest in the nation’s history by far.’

This is a theme Markets & Money readers will be familiar with.

Spiralling government debt which can’t go on forever…

This is a bi-polar world where you have to make decisions.

A world of booming markets, booming debt and now an unpredictable President thrown in to boot.

This is our starting point for our week of big ‘Trumpian’ ideas in the markets. Maybe such an exercise is madness? After all who can predict his next move. I’m not even sure he knows…

But let’s give it a go anyway.

Speak tomorrow…

Good investing,

Ryan Dinse
Contributing Editor, Markets & Money

Ryan Dinse is an analyst at Markets and Money. He has two decades of experience in financial planning, equity analysis and credit markets. Ryan combines fundamental, technical and economic analysis to identify and invest in good ideas at the appropriate stage of the economic cycle. He has a strong interest in technology, economic history and disruptive business models. His focus at the moment is as lead analyst on two of our most recent and innovative investor services, Crash Market Investor and Sam Volkering’s Secret Crypto Network. He will write about the exciting opportunities for investors to benefit from significant changes in world markets. He is a member of Fintech Australia, a former member of the Digital Currency Council, and is a fully accredited financial adviser.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Markets & Money