Will the Aussie Share Market Suffer Stage Fright Yet Again?

Are we seeing a market top forming in the US? The NASDAQ took it on the chin again overnight, with speculative money fleeing stocks with flimsy business models and no earnings. It’s not panic stations yet, but as we said earlier this week, if prices fall below the February lows expect a deeper, more prolonged correction to unfold.

Here’s a chart of the NASDAQ:

click to enlarge

It’s bad timing for the Aussie share market. In the past few days we looked set to break out to new highs. It was going to be onwards and upwards. But the futures show a hefty fall is on its way today (we’re writing this before the market open) meaning the new highs might not be sustained.

Is it stage fright? Every time the market makes a marginal new high, it backs off. Below is a chart of the All Ords over the past six months. The index breached the late October high in early March, followed by a sell-off. Then yesterday, it attempted to pop high on the open but the rally ran out of steam.

click to enlarge

Weak trade data out of China for the month of March didn’t help. Neither did an admission from China’s Premier Li Keqiang that the 7.5% growth target was flexible, meaning China is bracing for lower growth rates this year and beyond.

The prospect of Chinese stimulus has buoyed the Aussie share market (and dollar for that matter) over the past few weeks. But any stimulus that China plans will be minimal. And its successful implementation relies on China’s leaders navigating the many problems posed by a bursting credit bubble. They will have their work cut out.

Cracks in China’s credit system have been prevalent for a while now. Recent weakness in the NASDAQ suggests the QE ‘taper’ is slowly starting to uncover fragilities in US asset markets too.


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Greg Canavan
Greg Canavan is a contributing Editor of Markets and Money and is the foremost authority for retail investors on value investing in Australia. He is a former head of Australasian Research for an Australian asset-management group and has been a regular guest on CNBC, Sky Business’s The Perrett Report and Lateline Business. Greg is also the editor of Crisis & Opportunity, an investment publication designed to help investors profit from companies and stocks that are undervalued on the market. To follow Greg's financial world view more closely you can subscribe to Markets and Money for free here. If you’re already a Markets and Money subscriber, then we recommend you also join him on Google+. It's where he shares investment research, commentary and ideas that he can't always fit into his regular Markets and Money emails. For more on Greg go here.

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