Will the Aussie Share Market Suffer Stage Fright Yet Again?

Are we seeing a market top forming in the US? The NASDAQ took it on the chin again overnight, with speculative money fleeing stocks with flimsy business models and no earnings. It’s not panic stations yet, but as we said earlier this week, if prices fall below the February lows expect a deeper, more prolonged correction to unfold.

Here’s a chart of the NASDAQ:

click to enlarge

It’s bad timing for the Aussie share market. In the past few days we looked set to break out to new highs. It was going to be onwards and upwards. But the futures show a hefty fall is on its way today (we’re writing this before the market open) meaning the new highs might not be sustained.

Is it stage fright? Every time the market makes a marginal new high, it backs off. Below is a chart of the All Ords over the past six months. The index breached the late October high in early March, followed by a sell-off. Then yesterday, it attempted to pop high on the open but the rally ran out of steam.

click to enlarge

Weak trade data out of China for the month of March didn’t help. Neither did an admission from China’s Premier Li Keqiang that the 7.5% growth target was flexible, meaning China is bracing for lower growth rates this year and beyond.

The prospect of Chinese stimulus has buoyed the Aussie share market (and dollar for that matter) over the past few weeks. But any stimulus that China plans will be minimal. And its successful implementation relies on China’s leaders navigating the many problems posed by a bursting credit bubble. They will have their work cut out.

Cracks in China’s credit system have been prevalent for a while now. Recent weakness in the NASDAQ suggests the QE ‘taper’ is slowly starting to uncover fragilities in US asset markets too.


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Greg Canavan is a Contributing Editor at Markets & Money and Head of Research at Port Phillip Publishing. He advocates a counter-intuitive investment philosophy based on the old adage that ‘ignorance is bliss’. Greg says that investing in the ‘Information Age’ means you now have all the information you need. But is it really useful? Much of it is noise, and serves to confuse rather than inform investors. And, through the process of confirmation bias, you tend to sift the information that you agree with. As a result, you reinforce your biases. This gives you the impression that you know what is going on. But really, you don’t know. No one does. The world is far too complex to understand. When you accept this, your newfound ignorance becomes a formidable investment weapon. That’s because you’re not a slave to your emotions and biases. Greg puts this philosophy into action as the Editor of Crisis & Opportunity. He sees opportunities in crises. To find the opportunities, he uses a process called the ‘Fusion Method’, which combines charting analysis with more conventional valuation analysis. Charting is important because it contains no opinions or emotions. Combine that with traditional stock analysis, and you have a robust stock selection strategy. With Greg’s help, you can implement a long-term wealth-building strategy into your financial planning, be better prepared for the financial challenges ahead, and stop making the same mistakes that most private investors do every time they buy a stock. To find out more about Greg’s investing style and his financial worldview, take out a free subscription to Markets & Money here. And to discover more about Greg’s ‘ignorance is bliss’ investment strategy and the Fusion Method of investing, take out a 30-day trial to his value investing service Crisis & Opportunity here. Official websites and financial e-letters Greg writes for:

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