Are Aussie Oil Profits Evaporating from the Market?

Late last year, OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) said they would continue to limit oil production throughout 2018.

For now, they’re sticking to their word.

Countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia have continued to limit inventories this year. And the lack of supply is driving oil prices up across the globe.

Brent Crude (top) has already passed US$70 a barrel. WTI Crude (bottom) is not that far off that mark either.

oil price

Source: Bloomberg

Hedge funds are also manipulating the market. With millions to put to work, they are taking on speculative oil bets.

According to Bloomberg, speculative positions on crude oil have soared in recent months. Fund managers are now net long more than a billion barrels of oil.


Brent futures and options

Source: Bloomberg

As oil prices rallied hard towards the latter end of last year, those invested in oil stocks made a tidy profit.

Individual oil picks like Beach Energy Ltd [ASX:BPT] climbed as much as 134% in the same time frame. But will we see any more of those oil profits in 2018?

Find a stable producer

Last year, hundreds of oil stocks rose on the assumption of higher earnings. But because oil is so volatile, it’s extremely hard to predict what will happen next.

Will oil keep climbing, causing stocks to rally further? Will oil prices remain the same, causing some investors to sell out of the recent momentum oil stocks have experienced? Or will oil prices fall from here, causing investors to sell out of oil and move onto something else?

You could say it’s dangerous to venture into oil now. Many expect oil to remain flat. Meaning there’s little reason for oil producers to continue their climb.

Yet that’s not to say you shouldn’t invest in oil if you find a compelling investment. Even if oil prices were to come down, finding a low cost producer could be a great investment over time.


Härje Ronngard,

Junior Analyst, Markets & Money

PS: Commodities prices came back in 2016 and rallied hard in 2017.  Could they continue to rally heading into 2018?

Our resource analyst, Jason Stevenson thinks so. Jason is one of the sharpest minds when it comes to the resource sector. And he’s written a report with his top 10 mining stocks trading on the ASX right now.

Harje Ronngard is a Junior Analyst at Markets and Money. With an academic background in finance and investments, Harje knows how simple, yet difficult investing can be. He has worked with a range of assets classes, from futures to equities. But he’s found his niche in equity valuation. It’s not good enough to be right on average when it comes to investing. The market is volatile and it only takes one bad day to ruin your portfolio. You don’t want to end up like the six foot man that drowned in the river that was five foot deep on average. It’s why Harje is constantly reminding investors of their downside risk here at Markets and Money. He does so by simply asking just two questions.  What is it worth? And how much does it cost? These two questions alone open up a world of investment opportunities which Harje shares with Markets and Money readers. Right now Harje is focused on managing research and investments over at the Legacy Portfolio. An investment publication designed to significantly grow investor’s wealth over time with deeply undervalued businesses. Harje also contributes his insights in Total Income, headed by income specialist Matt Hibbard. Harje loves cash-rich businesses, so he feels right at home amongst Matt’s high yielding income plays.

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