The latest housing price data has once again dipped lower. Every capital city was down for the month, except Brisbane which remained on par. Bringing the overall monthly change across the capitals down 0.4%.
The January price slump is due to a shortage of auctions. With volumes expected to pick up again in the autumn months. It’s this seasonality that has some market analysts feeling optimistic about the future.
Macquarie analysts believe house prices have stopped falling, noting:
‘It is now looking very likely that housing prices at the national level are again rising modestly.
‘Dwelling price growth and activity are quite seasonal so the data must be seasonally adjusted to get a clear read on housing price trends.’
However, they’re keeping a lid on things as well. Cautioning that prices won’t rally as hard as they have in prior years.
Gloom or boom for Aussie Property?
The big unknown is interest rates. Back in 2016 when house prices skyrocketed, interest rates were cut by half a percentage point. This year three of the banks are expecting at least one rate rise, with potential for a second rise as well.
Speaking of banks, lending practices are well and truly under the microscope at the moment. Especially with the royal commission on the way.
It’ll be an interesting time for property prices. But our resident housing guru Phil Anderson says the market isn’t anywhere near the peak yet.
In fact, we’ve still got a couple of years of growth left to run according to Phil. Learn how to read the cycles. Get a copy of Phil’s free property report right here.
Junior Analyst, Markets & Money