About Terence Duffy

Terence Duffy is an analyst and chartist, specialising in researching economic trends and cycles.  His primary focus is housing and land affordability. But you can also depend on him to offer his unique analysis of stock market charts. As Terence will show you, the charts often forecast, well in advance, the good or bad news to come — which he details in Cycles, Trends and Forecasts.

Your Early Warning Sign for the Next Real Estate Peak
Your Early Warning Sign for the Next Real Estate Peak
It’s very easy to get caught up in all the day-to-day noise. The S&P 500 was up a hundred points, the Dow Jones down six hundred points, and on it goes. The stock market will show volatility from time to time. Housing starts can be a good way to gauge how the economy is tracking.
stock chart
Sun, Nature, Resurrection and the X-Axis
Good Friday and Easter Sunday are holy days in the Christian faith. They mark the crucifixion and resurrection of Jesus. And whilst that is so, the moveable dates also point to a hidden meaning. A reading different to the one commonly accepted. Here’s why Easter can fall anywhere between 22 March and 25 April.
US economy
This Bellwether Stock Says the US Economy is Still on Track
On all the trade war talk, US stock indexes fell heavily last Thursday and Friday. The major stock market averages suffered their worst weekly losses in two years. Although, with all the noise about a trade war last week, bullish reports on the US economy, seemed to get lost.
stock market tips
Five Tips to Stop the Losses Blowing Out
Sometimes when you buy into a stock, it just doesn’t behave the way you expected it to do. But rather than admitting to yourself that you made a mistake, you look for all sorts of reasons to keep holding it. Have you noticed this in your own trading and investing? So how do you avoid buying into bad stocks?
US economy illness
Stock Markets Happier on a Hiring Spree by US Businesses
In early February, markets looked to be on the brink of collapse because of concerns over rising interest rates and higher inflation. A month seems to be a long time in markets. In stark contrast to the month before, the market seems to have a happier disposition now.
The Fallout from Making US Steel Great Again
The Fallout from Making US Steel Great Again
Last week we saw US President Donald Trump come out with specific tariff figures, to protect US steel and aluminium companies. Protecting US jobs was a key part of President Trump’s election campaign. While last week’s news is great for US steelmakers, there are wider implications of such a move.
Stock market graph
This Bull Run Still Has Legs to Run
Stock markets can be volatile. You’ve been reminded of that over the last week. It’s led some to make sweeping statements about a market crash. Just keep a couple of things in mind when reading such analysis. One, the US economy remains strong.
cryptocurrencies and the history of money
Cryptocurrencies and the History of Money
Throughout history, people have trusted forms of money when those around them have trusted the same value. This trust is enhanced when people can rely on regulatory authorities to keep the system above board. It’s ironic. Cryptocurrencies were invented as a medium of exchange outside the system. Bringing them back into the system with regulatory controls may be the very thing necessary to ensure public confidence.
banking restrictions eased in the US
Why Trump Is Easing Banking Restrictions
Donald Trump campaigned to become US President on conflicting promises about big banks. Some of the populist talk followed Trump into office. But clearly, actions speak louder than words. The steps taken by the new government have been towards pure deregulation. This is how the cycle repeats.
real estate mcdonald's property
The McDonald’s Fortune Founded on Real Estate
The McDonald brothers explained that franchisees find land in a prime position, take out a lease, and borrow funds for construction. Who’d have thought the founder’s success in getting started came not from the sale of burgers but from the value in the land on which the burgers were made?
artificial intelligence
Artificial Intelligence: The Future Starts Now
Artificial intelligence is by no means a new concept. The term was first coined nearly 60 years ago. But it continues to give the impression that it’s something which will happen in the future. China wants to be at the forefront of this rapid growth now, and it’s already made a step in the right direction.
Infrastructure spending
Chinese Infrastructure Is Ready to Rival the Ancients
President Xi has called it ‘the project of the century.’ The initiative is motivated by a desire to boost economic growth in both China and nearby countries. This will provide a growing market for trade. It’s the largest overseas investment plan ever launched by a single country. According to ratings agency Fitch, US$900 billion of projects are planned or under construction.
goldilocks economy
Growth to Continue in a Goldilocks Environment
The world’s biggest bond fund believes we’re in a Goldilocks environment. And they think the trend will persist throughout 2018. This paints a rosy picture of the global economy and now the world’s biggest central bank agrees.