Bad News for the Economy Means Good News for the Stock Market

Global equity markets surged overnight on the back of deteriorating manufacturing data out of the US, China and Europe. Yep, you heard that right. Continuing on the theme of recent months, bad news for the economy means good news for the stock market. That’s because bad news for the economy means more activity from the world’s central banks…twisting, manipulating and shoving the economy in a direction it doesn’t want to go.

But wait! Didn’t the gold price collapse last week because of an improving global economy, meaning a gradual end to QE and rising interest rates? That was the story fed to us through the mainstream press, anyway. No matter that it was nonsense. It simply sought to explain the unexplainable.

Which is pretty much how things are on a daily basis these days…unexplainable in any rational manner. Not a lot makes sense. Of course, the market is ALWAYS right in the very short term. But with the glorious benefit of hindsight it is often wrong, as John Hussman illustrates with this classic chart, below.

It’s a comment on sentiment and human emotion via the ‘headline effect’. Barron’s magazine is a Wall Street bible. Twice a year it conducts the ‘Big Money Poll’ of professional investors. As Barron’s reports:


‘In our latest survey, 74% of money managers identify themselves as bullish or very bullish about the prospects for U.S. stocks an all-time high for Big Money, going back more than 20 years.’

That’s pretty bullish.

How have only slightly less bullish prognostications fared over time? Well, Hussman shows us three instances when big money snorted wildly. In 2000 after the tech bubble peak (hence the Barron’s cover title ‘Still Bullish’), in 2007 just prior to the credit crisis, and now.

As Hussman writes of today’s sentiment:


‘Rule o’ Thumb: When the cover of a major financial magazine features a cartoon of a bull leaping through the air on a pogo stick, it’s probably about time to cash in the chips.’

 

Without having read the Barron’s survey, we’d guess that the majority of big money managers are bullish because, well, they have to be. It is just too much business risk to be bearish when central banks offer free liquidity and seemingly underwrite all forms of risk.

That it will all go pear-shaped at some point is not in doubt. But if you’re bearish for a few quarters and it doesn’t go pear-shaped in that timeframe you start to see fund outflows. You start to underperform the index and may even lose your ‘big money manager’ status.

So the tendency for big money is always to be bullish. It’s good business.

Meanwhile, in the real world, economic deterioration continues.

Yesterday we learnt that the initial reading of manufacturing activity in China in April reached a two month low of 50.5, below expectations and down from a reading of 51.6 in March. (A reading above 50 signals expansion.)

The Australian market ‘shrugged’ that one off yesterday, because the prospects of more stimulus and the dividend payout policy of our largest energy company (Woodside) is more important than the deteriorating health of our largest trading partner. At least it is until it isn’t.

And overnight, we learnt that manufacturing activity in Europe remained stuck in the doldrums, with a reading of 46.5, while in the US the index fell to its lowest level in six months, with a reading of 52.

Global markets ‘shrugged’ that data off too. The rally had all the signs of another short squeeze. The bears are getting run out of town. Being bearish now is a lonely place to be…just how we like it.

Regards,
Greg Canavan
for Markets and Money

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Greg Canavan is a Contributing Editor at Markets & Money and Head of Research at Port Phillip Publishing. He advocates a counter-intuitive investment philosophy based on the old adage that ‘ignorance is bliss’. Greg says that investing in the ‘Information Age’ means you now have all the information you need. But is it really useful? Much of it is noise, and serves to confuse rather than inform investors. And, through the process of confirmation bias, you tend to sift the information that you agree with. As a result, you reinforce your biases. This gives you the impression that you know what is going on. But really, you don’t know. No one does. The world is far too complex to understand. When you accept this, your newfound ignorance becomes a formidable investment weapon. That’s because you’re not a slave to your emotions and biases. Greg puts this philosophy into action as the Editor of Crisis & Opportunity. He sees opportunities in crises. To find the opportunities, he uses a process called the ‘Fusion Method’, which combines charting analysis with more conventional valuation analysis. Charting is important because it contains no opinions or emotions. Combine that with traditional stock analysis, and you have a robust stock selection strategy. With Greg’s help, you can implement a long-term wealth-building strategy into your financial planning, be better prepared for the financial challenges ahead, and stop making the same mistakes that most private investors do every time they buy a stock. To find out more about Greg’s investing style and his financial worldview, take out a free subscription to Markets & Money here. And to discover more about Greg’s ‘ignorance is bliss’ investment strategy and the Fusion Method of investing, take out a 30-day trial to his value investing service Crisis & Opportunity here. Official websites and financial e-letters Greg writes for:

 


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