US Economy

Even after five years of crisis, recession — some even say depression — this US economy is still the largest in the world.

It has enormous influence over the direction of financial markets and your investments. But will its trillion dollars in government debt prove the end of the Empire? Or can resurgent industries like technology and energy put America back on the front foot?

We’ll leave it to you to make up your own mind after reading from this diverse group of analysts.

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    This Trade War May Have Little to Do with Trade
    A trade surplus is way down on the list. Far more important is the control of revolutionary technologies. It’s why China has been rapidly increasing their patent applications. It’s also why China has created 17 technological innovation zones. To become the world’s future super power, China knows the most important ammunition will be technology.
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    The Best Bet for US Stocks
    Logically, if falling interest rates sent stocks up…interest rate increases should send them back down. And already, they have. The Nasdaq is negative for 2018. The Dow has moved about 8% below its peak. And if we’re right about the general direction of things, theory tells us that interest rates ought to continue going up…and stocks ought to continue going down.
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    What Trump’s Quack Economists Will Do Next
    Yesterday, stock markets bounced back in the afternoon, after investors began to think that maybe Donald Trump wasn’t really serious about a trade war. One day, perhaps soon, they won’t be in such a good mood. And the market won’t bounce back. Not that the end is necessarily nigh…but, in theory, it must be out there somewhere.
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    The Source of America’s Economic Illness
    ‘Strong as an ox’ sounds like a good thing. But it does not accurately describe the U.S. economy we see. A strong economy is one in which people earn more money, save it, and invest it in new businesses and new capacity so they can earn even more. None of that is happening. The savings rate recently fell to 2.5%, about as low as it has ever been.
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    Choose Your Next Move Carefully…
    Last month, the US imposed tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminium (10%). They temporarily suspended tariffs for the European Union, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea. But not for China. Over the weekend, China retaliated…with more tariffs. What does this mean for the global economy?
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    Stormy for President
    Two big surprises yesterday, both concerning the White House. First, President Trump announced his long-awaited shake-up of his staff. No details were provided as to who was let go. Reporters said they saw the Gray Nonentity, Mike Pence, packing up over at the vice-presidential mansion. But it could not be confirmed that Mr. Pence had been removed from the team.
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    Solving the Drug Crisis with…More Drugs?
    The United States are in the middle of an opioid epidemic. If you are not familiar with opioids, they are a type of drug that can be very addictive. These can include legal painkillers and illegal drugs. The opioid crisis has become so bad that US President Donald Trump has declared it a national health emergency.
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    Discovered in the Abandoned Valley
    As time goes by, the pins grow sharper and bolder. There’s no point in speculating about which one will give the fatal stab. Still, it’s fun to watch…and guess. The Fed, for example, let the world know that there would be three rate hikes this year. Neither the stock market nor the bond market can survive significantly higher rates.
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    This Bellwether Stock Says the US Economy is Still on Track
    On all the trade war talk, US stock indexes fell heavily last Thursday and Friday. The major stock market averages suffered their worst weekly losses in two years. Although, with all the noise about a trade war last week, bullish reports on the US economy, seemed to get lost.
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    Surprise Attack
    Ever since June 1991 — our last official recession — the textbook approach to generating GDP growth has been to encourage households to borrow to ‘get the economy moving’. Our economic ‘success’ has really been a massive failure…setting households up for an extended period of financial pain and in some cases, ruin.
    All Aboard the Bankruptcy Express
    Yesterday, we described how the US government has changed over the last three decades. Now, neither party is worried about deficits…or the US federal debt, which hit a new milestone last week at $21 trillion. Instead, they are all onboard the Bankruptcy Express, running wide open and stopping only to pile on more debt.
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    Can We Expect a Sharp Stock Market Drop?
    The stock market remains volatile, and caution is in the wind. The President slashed the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, earlier in the year. That helped boost investor sentiment. But corporate tax cuts can only do so much for share prices.