Crazy? What Did You Expect?

If you want an antidote to all the gibberish, charlatans, fraudsters, politicians, central bank double-speakers and whatever else winds you up about modern day markets and investing, let me introduce you to my old mate Jim Rickards.

Well, old mate might be a little presumptuous. Jim’s more of a professional acquaintance. But that just sounds so stuffy…

Anyway, I first met Jim in 2012 as I recall. He was in Sydney at thecone time and offered to give a presentation to Markets and Money readers. We hastily arranged a venue (the Museum of Sydney) and it sold out immediately.

I nervously gave the introduction speech and then Jim proceeded to wow the audience.

Two years later Jim attended our World War D conference in Melbourne. I asked if we could do an interview on camera. Ever the gentleman, Jim agreed.

We chatted for about 45 minutes about currency wars, gold, China and Australia’s place in the world. There are no pithy sound-bites with Jim. Just intelligent analysis that you won’t hear anywhere else.

You see, Jim has a unique background. He’s a Wall Street veteran but also has ties and access to the CIA and government, among others. He knows how Wall Street really works. And it’s not the sanitised version you see in the mainstream press.

It’s a dirty game. Where governments fight economic war under the cloak of diplomacy and mutual cooperation. It’s a war Jim is acutely aware of.

The good news is we’ve arranged to publish Jim’s intelligence, designed specifically for Aussie investors. My actual mate, Tim Dohrmann (former editor of Money Morning and Australian Small Cap Investigator) is in on the project.

If you’re interested in Jim’s work, we’re offering his new book The Big Drop for the cost of postage to get you started. Click here for details.

Jim’s also pretty adept at interpreting central banker speak. Given that, I would be very interested to know what he made of RBA boss Glenn Stevens’ speech yesterday.

In the absence of Jim, you’re stuck with me today, so allow me to have a crack.

As you know, I’ve been critical of the Aussie economy’s direction for some time now: over-reliance on interest rates for stimulus, complete lack of a reform agenda, political incompetence and ignorance of our looming economic problems. Oh, and complete reliance on a housing bubble to sustain economic growth.

Pure idiocy.

Now, one of the chief architects is getting worried.

Yesterday, Glenn Stevens called parts of the Sydney property market ‘crazy’. He is also deeply worried about where economic growth will come from in the years ahead.

On the issue of property prices, what did he expect would happen at historically low interest rates? Interest rates are a blunt policy tool. They affect different areas and industries to varying degrees.

When Steven’s went on a massive rate cutting cycle from 2011 to 2013, and then followed it up with a few more cuts this year, surely he knew it would lead to economic distortions, like property bubbles?

In that case, why wasn’t their greater coordination with the banking regulator, APRA, to ensure investor lending wouldn’t get out of hand. Why didn’t the government act to negate some of the distortions fuelled by the low rates?

The performance of Australia’s ruling class over the past few years is akin to an unwieldy and ineffective corporation operating with a ‘silo’ mentality. That is, each department goes about its business without consideration for any other part of the business.

Generally, when that happens, the business goes down hill. Shareholders get restless and call for change. Senior management get the axe and the company goes through some tough times before recovering.

Unfortunately, things are not so easy when it comes to national economic management. Australia’s politicians and policymakers have absolutely failed in their task. However they, along with a compliant media, control the narrative. There is always something else to blame. The buck never stops here.

After enjoying one of the largest booms in our history, Australia now faces a grim economic future. It is one we are not prepared for as a society or equipped to deal with through the calibre of our ruling class.

Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey have proved themselves totally incompetent in understanding our economic challenges. So the chances of them coming up with a narrative to help us through these challenges is zero.

Last week, Hockey referred to those warning of tough economic times as ‘clowns’. Now Glenn Stevens is in this category. Welcome aboard Glenn!

Glenn is worried because he knows lower interest rates are not working to stimulate the economy.

He’s right. Official rates are at 2%. But yesterday’s consumer confidence data showed a slump back to pre-budget levels. Importantly, perceptions of ‘economic conditions over the next five years tanked 17%. The consumer isn’t happy.

You’re looking at business investment falling sharply next year too. The hoped-for pick up in dwelling investment is nowhere near big enough to offset the fall in mining and manufacturing investment.

That’s because most of the speculative capital (and foreign money) flowing into the real estate market goes into established housing. That’s another regulatory failure.

In fact, it’s against the law for foreigners to buy existing housing stock but our regulators are so passive and compromised the law is completely ignored.

I spent some time this week going through the national accounts in detail. The household sector is pretty much the sole support for the economy right now. I wrote about this in the just published June issue of Sound Money. Sound Investments. In brief, household income growth and final demand is approaching levels last seen during the GFC.

But back then the government’s budget position was in much better shape. Rudd was able to generate quick cash handouts. There was plenty of interest rate ammunition and China was about to unleash it’s housing boom.

We have none of those things now.

Another interest rate cut is coming. That’s all we’ve got. It might buy us another few months of reprieve but that’s about all. Then we’ll be back to square one.

To add to the confusion, now Stevens is visibly worried about the monster he created…the Sydney housing market. Why he doesn’t just say, ‘APRA needs to tighten lending standards fast or we can’t cut interest rates’, and say it publicly, I don’t know. Honesty and transparency aren’t the hallmarks of regulators and politicians.

One thing Stevens did say caught my attention though. He’s trying to tell a dopey government to get moving on a coordinated infrastructure plan:

…it would be confidence-enhancing if there was an agreed story about a long-term pipeline of infrastructure projects, surrounded by appropriate governance on project selection, risk-sharing between public and private sectors at varying stages of production and ownership, and appropriate pricing for use of the finished product.

The suppliers would feel it was worth their while to improve their offering if projects were not just one-offs. The financial sector would be attracted to the opportunities for financing and asset ownership. The real economy would benefit from the steady pipeline of construction work – as opposed to a boom and bust. It would also benefit from confidence about improved efficiency of logistics over time resulting from the better infrastructure. Amenity would be improved for millions of ordinary citizens in their daily lives.

We could unleash large potential benefits that at present are not available because of congestion in our transportation networks.

I’ve been on about this for a few months now. And the stocks I tipped to take advantage of this coming growth are doing well. They’ve been immune from the recent sell-off. To find out more about one of the few genuine growth areas for stocks, click here.


Greg Canavan+,
For Markets and Money, Australia

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Greg Canavan is a Contributing Editor at Markets & Money and Head of Research at Port Phillip Publishing. He advocates a counter-intuitive investment philosophy based on the old adage that ‘ignorance is bliss’. Greg says that investing in the ‘Information Age’ means you now have all the information you need. But is it really useful? Much of it is noise, and serves to confuse rather than inform investors. And, through the process of confirmation bias, you tend to sift the information that you agree with. As a result, you reinforce your biases. This gives you the impression that you know what is going on. But really, you don’t know. No one does. The world is far too complex to understand. When you accept this, your newfound ignorance becomes a formidable investment weapon. That’s because you’re not a slave to your emotions and biases. Greg puts this philosophy into action as the Editor of Crisis & Opportunity. He sees opportunities in crises. To find the opportunities, he uses a process called the ‘Fusion Method’, which combines charting analysis with more conventional valuation analysis. Charting is important because it contains no opinions or emotions. Combine that with traditional stock analysis, and you have a robust stock selection strategy. With Greg’s help, you can implement a long-term wealth-building strategy into your financial planning, be better prepared for the financial challenges ahead, and stop making the same mistakes that most private investors do every time they buy a stock. To find out more about Greg’s investing style and his financial worldview, take out a free subscription to Markets & Money here. And to discover more about Greg’s ‘ignorance is bliss’ investment strategy and the Fusion Method of investing, take out a 30-day trial to his value investing service Crisis & Opportunity here. Official websites and financial e-letters Greg writes for:

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