We checked. We checked again.
Despite our recent open letter to him, the person not sending us an email was Donald J Trump.
But let’s check with the markets before we return to politics…
Too late for Trump?
While the world’s attention is fixed on Mr Trump, Mr Market is playing it cool.
US stocks have barely budged for months. Yet the ground beneath the stock market’s feet is giving way.
Corporate earnings are down 15% over the last two years.
And China — which economists told us was the ‘engine of growth’ for the global economy — continues to dig itself into a debt hole as its order book goes blank.
Meanwhile, US homebuyers are mortgaging themselves up again…just like they did in 2007. And the average ratio of rent to income is also back at pre-crash levels.
It’s hardly surprising. US economic growth — if there is any at all — is leprous and weak…its spindly legs buckling under the weight of debt, cronies, and misleading price signals. Most likely, the economy will slip into recession in 2017.
This will pose a big problem — and a big, bogus opportunity — for the new president.
Because the Fed is still fighting the last recession seven years after it ended. Its key rate is still near zero, with little room for more EZ money.
Only the pulp is left in the monetary orange; the next administration must react to the next crisis by squeezing fiscal policy.
Most likely, President Clinton will get the crisis she wants. Then, she’ll be able to spend! Spend! Spend! Until the whole economy is coated in the sweet, sticky juice.
Wars at home. Wars abroad. Infrastructure ‘investments’. Subsidies. Payoffs. We’ll hear a lot about ‘protecting families and children’ and ‘keeping campaign promises’. And we’ll soon have deficits over $1 trillion a year. You go, girl!
What will hold her back? The conservatives are all gone. Congress is full of careerists and hacks. The press loves her; journalists give 27 times more money to her than to Trump.
Nobel Prize winners back her. And the feds can borrow for practically nothing with the Fed providing the money! What’s not to like?
Who will stop her? Now, ‘it’s too late’ for Mr Trump.
That’s what the political commentators say. ‘Barring a near-miracle,’ they hedge, ‘The Donald is finished.’
All through the campaign, we half expected Mr Trump to ‘get his act together’…and speak seriously to the millions of Americans who have been victims of the Establishment Elite, aka the Deep State or the Parasitocracy.
Several times he teased us with feints in the right direction…
Mr Trump sounded as though he might like to get the zombies off our backs…and the cronies out of our pockets. He promised to cut taxes. He suggested that maybe he would pull out of America’s pointless wars in the Middle East.
He even floated the idea of term limits for members of Congress.
But there was never any coherent strategy or follow-through. And the showman was soon back to his usual content-free carnival palaver.
Still, many of our smart friends got behind him, hoping he would shake up the system. Even we, like Rhett Butler near the end of the war, put away our cynicism and offered to help.
With a little coaching, Mr Trump could still shake things up — simply by speaking directly and honestly to the American people…about money, war, and the Parasitocracy.
He could show a few simple graphs illustrating how the economy changed after the ‘70s with runaway debt and declining income gains. And how the rich got richer while 90% of adults grew poorer.
And how our ‘wars’ — against poverty, drugs, and terror — are losing propositions meant to transfer more money and power to the elite, at our expense.
He could even explain how government — like heroin and debt — is subject to the Law of Declining Marginal Utility…and how a little may be a good thing, but too much is deadly.
Would this frank talk put him over the top?
We don’t know…but we’d like to find out.
But so far, nothing from Team Trump. The Republic is doomed.
For Markets and Money, Australia