Mr. Market, Meet Mr. Trouble

Here’s a record that was broken recently.

In the early ’80s, Michael Milken pointed out that junk bonds could be more profitable than those with an AAA rating. The junk bond market was tiny…with total issuance only rising to about $30 billion in the mid ’80s. Milken was basically right, as subsequent events proved. But that didn’t stop the feds from putting him in jail in 1990.

The junk bond market continued to grow. At the end of the ’90s, issuance was hitting records – at around $150 billion. Then, bond issuance collapsed with the tech bubble. But unlike tech stocks, high-yield bonds were soon flying higher than ever.

 In the middle of the 2000-2007 period, annual junk bond issuance rose above the $150 billion mark. But in 2013, the junk really topped the charts, with about $330 billion of new bonds issued.

Why so much junk?

Ah…for that…as for so much else, we have the central bank to thank. Lower yields caused lenders to stretch beyond their comfort zones for higher rates of return in lower quality issues. In 2007, they were driving into bad neighbourhoods to get what they needed. And by 2013, they were dumpster diving for a measly 5%.

Can you blame them? As more and more liquidity became available, there were fewer reasons for anyone to default. A mismanaged, zombie business didn’t need to stop paying its coupons; it just had to borrow more money. Borrowers and lenders were both deceived; the former found lenders unusually motivated; the latter believed borrowers were uncharacteristically solvent.

All of which just serves to highlight our latest dictum: the Fed’s $4.1 trillion balance sheet is a standing invitation to trouble.

Mr Trouble walks through the door every morning and into a party every night. But he is a master of disguise. One day, he comes with the healthy mien of a robust high-yield debt market.

The next day he is crumpled over, as if depressed by unusually low consumer price inflation. And on the weekend, here he is again, a big shot from Wall Street with the highest profit margins in 60 years.

Yes, dear reader, Mr Trouble has many disguises. Of course, an honest, properly functioning economy spots him immediately and shows him the door. But a trumped-up, highly manipulated and mountebank economy is like a Carnival hoedown. You can find anything you want…but nobody is exactly who they appear to be.

Economists refer to this as the problem of ‘distortion’. The real cost of real capital is usually signalled by the prevailing interest rates. When Mr Market is permitted to function normally, investors can take the facts at face value.

 When the Federal Reserve intervenes, on the other hand, the effect is to distort the economy and the markets. Manipulating interest rates downward makes capital seem too cheap. It is borrowed too easily and spent too readily. The result is over-speculation…and over-investment.

That is why we have a record issuance of junk bonds. It is just one more of the many drag queens and carnival kings that have been corrupted by the Fed’s heavy-handed meddling in the markets.

On display too is the ‘recovery’ itself – it’s the weakest ever! Never before has such a strong recession been followed by such a weak bounce-back. Quarter after quarter, jobs growth, GDP growth and consumer price growth substantially under-perform every recovery since WWII.

Another record! And just one of the many jolly revellers who opens the door for Mr Trouble when he shows up.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for Markets and Money

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Bill Bonner

Bill Bonner

Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success and garnered camaraderie in numerous communities and industries. A man of many talents, his entrepreneurial savvy, unique writings, philanthropic undertakings, and preservationist activities have all been recognized and awarded by some of America's most respected authorities.

Along with Addison Wiggin, his friend and colleague, Bill has written two New York Times best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. Both works have been critically acclaimed internationally. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance. Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind Markets and MoneyDice Have No Memory: Big Bets & Bad Economics from Paris to the Pampas, the newest book from Bill Bonner, is the definitive compendium of Bill's daily reckonings from more than a decade: 1999-2010. 

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3 Comments on "Mr. Market, Meet Mr. Trouble"

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slewie the pi-rat
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Confucius say: he who dive in Chinese credit-dumpster now ready for bath.

Jason
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Mr. Market,meet Mr. Peak Oil.

Ross
Guest

Lord Rothschild: ““With the world recovery still fragile and reliant to a large extent on policy support, it is not hard to envisage markets having to deal with shocks in the coming year.”

Policy support = printing press + mark-to-whatever

Shocks = _____________ !!!!!!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/city-heavyweights-warn-of-stock-shocks-ahead-9173715.html

wpDiscuz
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